Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD) has created a model that predicts the end of the COVID-19 cases per country using A.I.
Using data from Our World in Data, which includes total confirmed cases, total deaths, new confirmed cases, new deaths, and population, SUTD was able to project the infection curve and predict the date when those cases will end. The charts show when the total cases will end in 97%, 99%, and 100% increments.
Based on the results, here are the projections for some Southeast Asian countries:
Based on the model, the Philippines will see 97% of the total cases will end on May 12, 99% on May 23, and 100% on July 8.
In Singapore, the model predicts that 97% of the cases will end on May 9, 99% on May 15, and 100% by June 10.
In Malaysia, 97% of the total cases are expected to end on May 6, 99% on May 19, and 100% on July 8.
Vietnam is expected to be one of the earliest South East Asian countries to recover, with the model predicting that it will end 97% of the cases on April 18, 99% by April 29, and 100% on May 14.
Taking a look at the world’s total cases, the model predicts that it will end 97% of the total cases on May 30, 99% by June 17, 100% on December 2.
While the Singapore University of Technology and Design’s projection is monitoring and using data in real-time, they are acknowledging that their model may be proven false by government policy changes. Moreover, each country’s projection should not be read in isolation, but together with the predictions of other countries as no country is in isolation. Read their disclaimer below:
“Disclaimer: Content from this website is STRICTLY ONLY for educational and research purposes and may contain errors. The model and data are inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different countries. Predictions are uncertain by nature. Readers must take any predictions with caution. Over-optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided.”
If you wish to read SUTD’s study, the rest of its real-time projections, model, and more, check out their official When Will COVID-19 End site here.