Social networks come and go. It took about 3 or 4 years after Friendster first became a craze in the Philippines to wither and be almost forgotten. MySpace had a number of years to its credit in the US as well.
Even Google’s own homegrown social networking site, Orkut, saw its traffic dwindled into half in Brazil (where it’s still the huge there), according to Alexa data.
All good things must come to an end. So while everyone is still going gaga over FB statuses and FarmVille, I’d like to look forward and predict how many years Facebook still has before it becomes old. How long does it have before Filipinos look at it and remind them of Friendster.
When that happens, I don’t even think it will be Facebook’s mistake but because people just grew tired of the site or a new hip and cool one is invented.
So, tell me what you think — how many years does Facebook still have? My bet is 2 or 3 years, tops.
i’d say 1-2 yrs…. im already tired of using FB… been using it for a few months now… just not as interesting as before as i first used it.
friendster was painfully slow, two-dimensional.
google was interested to buy them for around 30million usd back then.
recently, friendster was sold for $100million.
not bad, considering its site is so jurassic compared to present competition in social networking arena.
i think the facebook will remain a stable like your free e-mail sites. unless theres a new wave coming.
it even surpassed email sites for web activity.
globally, it now ranked #2 for most visited site. (second to google; yahoo is now only in 3rd place)
would you want to guess how much is the present valuation of Facebook?
answer> 10 BILLION u.s. dollars only.
friendster was painfully slow, two-dimensional.
google was interested to buy them for around 30million usd back then.
recently, friendster was sold for $100million.
not bad, considering its site is so jurassic compared to present competition in social networking arena.
i think facebook will remain a stable like your free e-mail sites. unless theres a new wave coming.
it even surpassed email sites for web activity.
globally, it now ranked #2 for most visited site. (second to google; yahoo is now only in 3rd place)
would you want to guess how much is the present valuation of Facebook?
answer> 10 BILLION u.s. dollars only.
Twitter: foodrecap
says:
common facebook, climb ten steps higher or you will end like friendster.
Twitter: ewancoo
says:
2 years max
2 years or how long would Zynga contain people with their games.
Social comments and analytics for this post…
This post was mentioned on Twitter by WebAlerts: [YugaTech.com] How long before Facebook becomes old? http://bit.ly/8ydPAY…
Twitter: killrfillr
says:
Mga 5-6 years, wala po akong nakikitang social networking site na pwedeng makipagsabayan sa Facebook in terms of apps and innovation.
Twitter: arnoldgamboa
says:
I think that as long as Facebook — or any social networking sites, for that matter — innovates, listens to its users and make them the priority, it can go on and on. I don’t think Friendster’s problem was people grew tired of them. They simply become stagnant.
ganun talaga parang gadget din yan…
Twitter: conanhughes
says:
Whenever people’s friends are still using FB, they will still be there. What’s a social networking without a live connection between people?
Twitter: arunkumarnexon
says:
my bet is within 3 years. because making a social networking site is not hard these days. there are a lot of community making softwares are available on the internet now days. so there is a 95% chance for a networking site which will come with a fresh,trendy & attractive idea. (for giving an example i consider -vbulletin as you all know vbulletin is a social community forum maker that made some attractive changes on their newest version. also there are other free softwares available like Dolphin smart cmmunity builder).
Hi abe, you should share this video to the rest of the gang. I had a good laugh on this! =)
3-4 years…
Its hard to predict..
many people entertain themselves when playing!
Twitter: nickdael
says:
If they could keep it spam free and “clean” advertising then facebook will stay.
4 years tops
I’d say 2 years max.
This ‘adding friends up and getting in touch with them’ craze is becoming tired.
Now that almost EVERYONE is online, why limit your ‘update circles’ to just friends and friends of friends? Soon, we’d have to learn for to categorize our friends better.
Ah, the future holds to much promise.
The best is definitely yet to come for cyberspace.
Catch the Wave!
Google Wave = FB Killah!
Only time will tell. It is now on its growth stage, so it still has to mature before a decline on usage can be observed. A lot of analysts claim that FB still has untapped potentials. In short, they still have to find out how to make money out of FB.
As long as FB remains innovative, people will not grow tired of it. FB will remain the most popular social networking site for the years to come unless a new group of ivy league intellectuals start up an ultra sleek version of FB.
I even have a hunch that it will become more popular than Google.
Twitter: Teknisyan
says:
Nice question.. Since FB and twitter became famous at almost the same time.. this will probably apply to Twitter as well.
Considering that Friendster, Myspace and Orkut did’nt have that killer apps not like what FB is enjoying right now.. I’ll give FB approximate life span of 10 years before they fade away or another similar service steal FB’s spotlight… so better take that $$$ being offered soon than miss the opportunity of a life time..
Learn from Youtube!!!!
http://teknisyan.blogspot.com
10 years.. unless the founder suddenly quits because of burnout..
Twitter: pinkroma
says:
2-4 yrs maybe…
I noticed the increase of Ad-related posts. People get tagged with items for sale. If this continues to increase FB might become the new multiply.
I think …2 years..dapat kasi ilagay nila sa Farmville ung mga Filipino seeds..like…Upo..Ampalaya..Sitaw…wala mag sasawa mga farmer..pag wala sila nakikita mga bago sa isang game..dapat din merun na talipapa dun…pwedi ka magbenta..
Gaano ba katagal bago mag December 21, 2012?
Twitter: Bogcess
says:
I agree with what yuga said. 2-3 years tops.