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How long before Facebook becomes old?

Q: Key Point 1: It took about 3 or 4 years after Friendster first...

It took about 3 or 4 years after Friendster first became a craze in the Philippines to wither and be almost forgotten.

Q: Key Point 2: MySpace had a number of years to its credit in...

MySpace had a number of years to its credit in the US as well.

Q: Key Point 3: Even Google's own homegrown social networking site, Orkut, saw its...

Even Google's own homegrown social networking site, Orkut, saw its traffic dwindled into half in Brazil (where it's still the huge there), according to Alexa data.

Q: Key Point 5: So, tell me what you think -- how many years...

So, tell me what you think -- how many years does Facebook still have?

Abe Olandres December 17, 2009 · 1 min read

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Social networks come and go. It took about 3 or 4 years after Friendster first became a craze in the Philippines to wither and be almost forgotten. MySpace had a number of years to its credit in the US as well.

Even Google’s own homegrown social networking site, Orkut, saw its traffic dwindled into half in Brazil (where it’s still the huge there), according to Alexa data.

All good things must come to an end. So while everyone is still going gaga over FB statuses and FarmVille, I’d like to look forward and predict how many years Facebook still has before it becomes old. How long does it have before Filipinos look at it and remind them of Friendster.

When that happens, I don’t even think it will be Facebook’s mistake but because people just grew tired of the site or a new hip and cool one is invented.

So, tell me what you think — how many years does Facebook still have? My bet is 2 or 3 years, tops.

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Abe Olandres

Editor-in-chief

Abe is the founder and Editor-in-Chief of YugaTech with over 20 years of experience in the technology industry. He is one of the pioneers of blogging in the country and considered by many as the Father of Tech Blogging in the Philippines. He is also a technology consultant, a tech columnist with several national publications, resource speaker and mentor/advisor to several start-up companies.

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115 Comments

Jes · 16 years ago

I’m getting really bored with FB. Any suggested alternative?

Bogcess · 16 years ago

I agree with what yuga said. 2-3 years tops.

Mayan · 16 years ago

Gaano ba katagal bago mag December 21, 2012?

DrillMind · 16 years ago

I think …2 years..dapat kasi ilagay nila sa Farmville ung mga Filipino seeds..like…Upo..Ampalaya..Sitaw…wala mag sasawa mga farmer..pag wala sila nakikita mga bago sa isang game..dapat din merun na talipapa dun…pwedi ka magbenta..

roma · 16 years ago

2-4 yrs maybe…

I noticed the increase of Ad-related posts. People get tagged with items for sale. If this continues to increase FB might become the new multiply.

nitecrawler · 16 years ago

10 years.. unless the founder suddenly quits because of burnout..

The Teknisyan · 16 years ago

Nice question.. Since FB and twitter became famous at almost the same time.. this will probably apply to Twitter as well. :)

Considering that Friendster, Myspace and Orkut did’nt have that killer apps not like what FB is enjoying right now.. I’ll give FB approximate life span of 10 years before they fade away or another similar service steal FB’s spotlight… so better take that $$$ being offered soon than miss the opportunity of a life time.. ;)

Learn from Youtube!!!!

http://teknisyan.blogspot.com

kengkeng · 16 years ago

Only time will tell. It is now on its growth stage, so it still has to mature before a decline on usage can be observed. A lot of analysts claim that FB still has untapped potentials. In short, they still have to find out how to make money out of FB.

As long as FB remains innovative, people will not grow tired of it. FB will remain the most popular social networking site for the years to come unless a new group of ivy league intellectuals start up an ultra sleek version of FB.

I even have a hunch that it will become more popular than Google. ;-)

Newwaver · 16 years ago

Catch the Wave!

Google Wave = FB Killah!

TechPinas · 16 years ago

I’d say 2 years max.

This ‘adding friends up and getting in touch with them’ craze is becoming tired.

Now that almost EVERYONE is online, why limit your ‘update circles’ to just friends and friends of friends? Soon, we’d have to learn for to categorize our friends better.

Ah, the future holds to much promise.

The best is definitely yet to come for cyberspace.

Hex · 16 years ago

4 years tops

Nick Nichelle Dael · 16 years ago

If they could keep it spam free and “clean” advertising then facebook will stay.

Efren Jan Corpuz · 16 years ago

3-4 years…
Its hard to predict..

many people entertain themselves when playing!

anonymous · 16 years ago

Hi abe, you should share this video to the rest of the gang. I had a good laugh on this! =)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mFJdOsjJ0k

Arun kumar · 16 years ago

my bet is within 3 years. because making a social networking site is not hard these days. there are a lot of community making softwares are available on the internet now days. so there is a 95% chance for a networking site which will come with a fresh,trendy & attractive idea. (for giving an example i consider -vbulletin as you all know vbulletin is a social community forum maker that made some attractive changes on their newest version. also there are other free softwares available like Dolphin smart cmmunity builder).

Conan Hughes · 16 years ago

Whenever people’s friends are still using FB, they will still be there. What’s a social networking without a live connection between people?

Obed · 16 years ago

ganun talaga parang gadget din yan…

Arnold Gamboa · 16 years ago

I think that as long as Facebook — or any social networking sites, for that matter — innovates, listens to its users and make them the priority, it can go on and on. I don’t think Friendster’s problem was people grew tired of them. They simply become stagnant.

kill3rfill3r · 16 years ago

Mga 5-6 years, wala po akong nakikitang social networking site na pwedeng makipagsabayan sa Facebook in terms of apps and innovation.

kevinn · 16 years ago

2 years or how long would Zynga contain people with their games.

ewancoo · 16 years ago

2 years max

marvin · 16 years ago

common facebook, climb ten steps higher or you will end like friendster.

rico · 16 years ago

friendster was painfully slow, two-dimensional.
google was interested to buy them for around 30million usd back then.

recently, friendster was sold for $100million.

not bad, considering its site is so jurassic compared to present competition in social networking arena.

i think facebook will remain a stable like your free e-mail sites. unless theres a new wave coming.

it even surpassed email sites for web activity.

globally, it now ranked #2 for most visited site. (second to google; yahoo is now only in 3rd place)

would you want to guess how much is the present valuation of Facebook?

answer> 10 BILLION u.s. dollars only.

rico · 16 years ago

friendster was painfully slow, two-dimensional.
google was interested to buy them for around 30million usd back then.

recently, friendster was sold for $100million.

not bad, considering its site is so jurassic compared to present competition in social networking arena.

i think the facebook will remain a stable like your free e-mail sites. unless theres a new wave coming.

it even surpassed email sites for web activity.

globally, it now ranked #2 for most visited site. (second to google; yahoo is now only in 3rd place)

would you want to guess how much is the present valuation of Facebook?

answer> 10 BILLION u.s. dollars only.

jovs · 16 years ago

i’d say 1-2 yrs…. im already tired of using FB… been using it for a few months now… just not as interesting as before as i first used it.

Greg · 16 years ago

I’d bet that as soon as Facebook becomes harder to access, and as long as they aren’t burdened by the huge number of subscribers who access the site, they’d be around for another year or so. Anyone ever noticed that FB’s games are getting slower and harder to access?

rockycholeric · 16 years ago

around 5 years :)

Beeps · 16 years ago

As long they provide updates with pretty innovations. They will still stay on top, Cant guess how many years, Google is brewing something right now so let see what will happen next year. :-)

Reel Advice · 16 years ago

As long sa thney keep on improving Facebook then it could last for more than 5 years even IMHO.

daddy joey · 16 years ago

*something fresher and more innovative than facebook.

daddy joey · 16 years ago

not unless something bigger than facebook comes out.

daddy joey · 16 years ago

it also depends on the user, i for example became tired of the FB apps/games(mafia wars, farmville, etc.) as i saw it routinary, even when they upgrade the game levels.

but with facebook as a whole(the status updates, photo uploads/tagging, etc. i must say 5 yrs. :)

ianp · 16 years ago

I would say around 5 years, just to answer the question. But really, it depends on more than just calculated lifespan.

Unlike the others, FB became a relatively successful venue for business advertising, organizing events, and even becoming a political machinery of its own. Its application pool is also quite a hit.

When it becomes (or is perceived to be) just a mere social networking site for its users, that’s when the cancer starts.

Andew Mercado · 16 years ago

2-3 years I guess! Social Networking is one of the most vulnerable businesses because People are not that loyal for a particular social networking Company and it’s easy for us to migrate from one social networking site to another just like what to friendster.

Personally, most of my social networking activities right now is on twitter not on facebook.

aedos · 16 years ago

Peoplt got tired of friendster because they just stood there. While facebooks reinvents itself every day. And wag lang ulanin ng jologs ang facebook. :)

Eric · 16 years ago

2 years is a good guess seeing that they are running out of improvements. And with the new privacy settings that seems to encourage people to share everything, it won’t be that long.

Edgar · 16 years ago

Knowing people’s preferences we really can’t predict for sure. Unless something crops up that strike their fancies, people would stick to the current thing available.

chefyoji · 16 years ago

facebook keeps reinventing itself, so I don’t think it will go the way of Friendster and Myspace.

Zirdaj · 16 years ago

@ maurice: haha, yung chimisan nga ng mga tita ko lately puro farmville lol

rbsoriano · 16 years ago

2 years and 7 months :D

pabs · 16 years ago

I think it will last, as long as people enjoy it. I do not tire of opening facebook in the morning and then again in the evening to check on any updates of my friends and to chat with them whenever they are on line. I enjoy the games whenever I have a longer free time. I seldom watch TV these days, I’m hooked on facebook. When I’m on the road I use my reliable nokia 5800 to check facebook and share my photos, so you see, it will go on as long as they keep up what we want.

gio · 16 years ago

4 years

Maurice · 16 years ago

as long as there is unlimited photo uploads in facebook and they improve their security features, i think they still have many more years to dominate. The games is a plus in facebook cuz I enjoy playing games @ facebook. Even my mom is addicted to farming and running a cafe at facebook… hehehe

Nonoy · 16 years ago

5 years

Sherwin · 16 years ago

i doubt it will be 2-3 years lang. Facebook did not just make a social networking site and leave it as is. rather they continuously improve on it by opening it to developers and the likes. Facebook connect, allowing businesses to enter and maximize their pages, plus the right timing of being “connected” via mobile tech (which was missing back then) etc.

My bet is at least 5 more years.

alfred · 16 years ago

I think by the end of next year.

-Sent via YugaTech Mobile App

Carl · 16 years ago

How long did Friendster became a hit? Double it, and there’s your number.

superdan · 16 years ago

my bet will be 3-4 years.it might be longer actually due to the addition of games besides its social networking component.and i’m sure newer gimicks and games will be rolled out by facebook to further entice the world.